French Statistics: 69% File-Sharers Will Stop Over HADOPI

This kind of strange statistics can be found floating in the web, originated from 20 Minutes.fr, a French media outlet. It says a research was carried out, finding out that 69% of file-sharers would choose to quit their illegal activities due to introduction of “three-strikes” legislation in France. However, after studying the statistics, this figure seems to be very misleading.

The media outlet runs a story about the research, which asked people if they gave up file-sharing under the threat of being disconnected of facing the fines up to 1,500 euros. Apparently, 69% responded positively to this question, while another 77% pointed out that they would prefer to monitor their network in case they felt it’s at risk.

Here comes the uncertainty of that second figure. It’s unclear what kind of risk is meant here – malware, hacking or file-sharing. But that’s just the starting point where the credibility begins falling apart. There’s no information on who was asked in the research or what the other results of it are. When trying to click on the links provided by 20 Minutes.fr, one isn’t directed towards the real survey data – in fact, it’s unable to locate the information at all. That’s not a good sign, as there has been a precedent before, when Canada faced the same type of statistics from foreign record studios arguing that the country was a real pirate nation. However, it turned out to be merely cherry-picked information, leaving anything not going along the intended outcome aside.

Still, it’s hard to judge what kind of circumstances influenced this particular study so far, but it’s clear that the research is at least strange and highly questionable, if only two figures are revealed from the whole study, while the rest of them are kept in secret.

In addition, international precedent proves that in fact stricter copyright legislation only increases the volume of illegal use of copyrighted content. That’s what Sweden experienced after IPRED was passed. The file-sharers just switched to the other ways of downloading, where the law couldn’t reach. If we look at France, there are at least three obvious examples of how the users can continue illegal downloading: streaming, cyberlockers, and UseNet.

As it was widely acknowledged, the only thing HADOPI will be able to gain is prosecuting a few users barely understanding what they are doing, while moving advances file-sharers around.